Friday, January 8, 2016

Sri Lanka * market update * Asian markets mixed, Oil rallies

Asian markets were unstable and are swinging between positive and negative following China’s crash on Thursday but Japan and mainland shares show some gains. China’s Shanghai shares were up at 1.4 percent after trading down at 1.89 percent earlier while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is also up at 0.91 percent. South Korea’s KOSPI fell 0.25 percent while Japan’s Nikkei was up 0.25 percent. In Australian markets the ASX 200 was down 0.62 percent. (Jan 08, 2016 08.00 a.m)

Oil prices rallied also helping to support the gains around the region with the West Texas Intermediate futures up 2 percent at 33.95 dollars a barrel while the globally traded Brent was up 1.78 percent at 34.35 dollars a barrel. Overnight, prices for both futures tumbled to 12-year lows. (Jan 08, 2016 08.15 a.m)

 

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Stiglitz outlines carbon, inelastic, land, congestion taxes at economic forum

Jan 08, 2016 (LBO) – Renowned economist Joseph Stiglitz, speaking at the Sri Lanka Economic Forum, explained some of the ways the government could raise tax revenue by taxing environmental pollution, inelastic goods, land, consumption and road congestion.

“What is the best way to increase tax revenue?” the nobel laureate asked a packed forum of government and private sector officials at forum in Colombo.

He said there are several principles of taxation, one of which is to to tax bads over goods such as environmental pollution.

Carbon taxes help to address the problem of emitters of greenhouse gases not facing the full social cost of their actions.

Taxing inelastic goods, was another way to raise tax revenue that leads to less distortions, he said.

A third possibility is land taxation which requires having a national land registry, Stiglitz said.

Analysts say some instinctively react negatively to land tax proposals, and they have been controversial in countries such as the United States where they are used.

Those arguing for land value taxation say it is a tax difficult for the rich to avoid, promotes more productive use of capital, and provides a stable revenue source, especially for local government.

Those arguing against land value taxation say it is a tax on unrealized capital gains, which could unfairly affect retirees or elderly who do not have a commensurate income stream. Some taxpayers will fear reappraisal and unfair reappraisals.

Outlining other methods, Stiglitz explained how taxation on consumption of luxury goods can help in situations of balance of payments problems.

Road and congestion taxes, when coupled especially with modern technology, could allow tracking of vehicles and taxing the externality of congestion, Stiglitz added.

Economists at the forum added that widening the tax base was more important than the rate in improving tax revenues, with Sri Lanka’s tax revenues falling below levels of comparable countries over the last several years.

 

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Sri Lanka can't continue as low income country: PM

Jan 08, 2015 (LBO) – Sri Lanka should take note of global economic conditions and its own shortcomings which will enable the island to become a high income nation in the region, Prime Minister Ranil Wickramasinghe said.

“Sri Lanka has a unique chance to go on a unique journey after the end of a decade’s long war,” Wickremesinghe told the Sri Lanka Economic Forum in Colombo.

“We are now on a path to create an inclusive growth where all people, those who gave us a mandate and those who did not, would have a better life – Sri Lanka can’t continue as low income country,” he said.

“We have to charter a difficult course in the beginning but I have no doubt that we will be able to do this if we stick together.”

The PM said that Sri Lanka will be developed into a global city placed between Dubai and Singapore where international trade and movement is concerned.

“There is no major metropolis between Dubai and Singapore now.”

He also stressed the need for economical links between Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu and other Indian states such as Gujarat and Maharashtra.

“Sri Lanka is the first nation in South Asia to embrace open economy, first in Asia to go for free education and one of the first nations in the region to enjoy universal franchise,”

“So it is time the country move forward from being a low income earning country.”

“Sri Lanka did focus on agriculture in the past when it launched the Mahaweli Development but unfortunately it was not possible to go forward from there,” he added.

 

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Norway pledges support for recently resettled communities in Sri Lanka

Jan 08, 2016, (LBO) – The Government of Norway and UNDP Sri Lanka are partnering to improve access to justice and livelihood opportunities of the recently resettled communities in the Jaffna District, a statement said.

Country Director of the United Nations Development Programme [UNDP] in Sri Lanka, Joern Soerensen and Ambassador of Norway to Sri Lanka, His Excellency Thorbjørn Gaustadsæther signed a partnership agreement to extend Norway’s support to the recently resettled communities in the Jaffna District.

The event held in Colombo, was also attended by Knut Nyfløt, Counsellor, Royal Norwegian Embassy, Ms. Vidya Perera, Senior Advisor, Royal Norwegian Embassy and Mr. Rajendrakumar Ganesarajah, Assistant Country Director, UNDP Sri Lanka.

 

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Thursday, January 7, 2016

Global equities off to poor start, Brent crude at 11-year low

Jan 07, 2016 (LBO) – Global equity markets are off to their worst start since 2000, with a weaker Chinease yuan sparking concerns about the global economy, as Brent crude fell to a 11-year low of 34.23 dollars a barrel.

The MSCI All-Country World Index ended the first three days of 2016 down by 3.3 percent and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell to its lowest level since 2009.

U.S. equities dropped to a three-month low with the S&P 500 closing down 1.3 percent overnight, Nasdaq was down 1.14 percent and DJIA fell 1.47 percent.

The yuan was fixed at 6.5314 to the dollar onshore Wednesday, down 0.2% from the previous day. In offshore markets, it was at 6.6940, down 0.7% on the day and about 2% so far this year.

The spread between the onshore and offshore value is the widest since offshore trading started five years ago.

U.S. Treasuries jumped, with yields on 10-year notes dropping seven basis points to 2.17 percent.

China shares closed up 1.75 percent, as Brent crude hit 34.23 dollars a barrel, down six percent at 0100 am GMT.

The ruble weakened most among emerging-market currencies as tumbling oil prices exacerbated a selloff in riskier assets.

 

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Anemic EM weigh on global growth, South Asia a bright spot: World Bank

Jan 07, 2016 (LBO)- Weak growth among major emerging markets will weigh on global growth in 2016, but economic activity should still pick up modestly to a 2.9 percent pace, from 2.4 percent growth in 2015, as advanced economies gain speed, according to the World Bank’s January 2016 Global Economic Prospects.

The South Asia region, however, led by India, is projected to be a bright spot.

Simultaneous weakness in most major emerging markets is a concern for achieving the goals of poverty reduction and shared prosperity because those countries have been powerful contributors to global growth for the past decade. Spillovers from major emerging markets will constrain growth in developing countries and pose a threat to hard-won gains in raising people out of poverty, the report warns.

“More than 40 percent of the world’s poor live in the developing countries where growth slowed in 2015,” said World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim. “Developing countries should focus on building resilience to a weaker economic environment and shielding the most vulnerable. The benefits from reforms to governance and business conditions are potentially large and could help offset the effects of slow growth in larger economies.”

Global economic growth was less than expected in 2015, when falling commodity prices, flagging trade and capital flows, and episodes of financial volatility sapped economic activity. Firmer growth ahead will depend on continued momentum in high income countries, the stabilization of commodity prices, and China’s gradual transition towards a more consumption and services-based growth model.

Developing economies are forecast to expand by 4.8 percent in 2016, less than expected earlier but up from a post-crisis low of 4.3 percent in the year just ended. Growth is projected to slow further in China, while Russia and Brazil are expected to remain in recession in 2016. The South Asia region, led by India, is projected to be a bright spot. The recently negotiated Trans-Pacific Partnership could provide a welcome boost to trade.

“There is greater divergence in performance among emerging economies. Compared to six months ago, risks have increased, particularly those associated with the possibility of a disorderly slowdown in a major emerging economy,” said World Bank Group Vice President and Chief Economist Kaushik Basu. “A combination of fiscal and central bank policies can be helpful in mitigating these risks and supporting growth.”

Although unlikely, a faster-than-expected slowdown in large emerging economies could have global repercussions. Risks to the outlook also include financial stress around the U.S. Federal Reserve tightening cycle and heightened geopolitical tensions.

 

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George Soros looking at investment opportunities in Sri Lanka

Jan 07, 2016 (LBO) – Global investor George Soros said that his team is in the Island and are looking at investment opportunities.

“In addition to my people connected to the Open Society Foundation, my investment person is also in Sri Lanka to look for opportunities,” George Soros, a global investor and Founder Chairman of Open Society, said.

“I am impressed with  this government and what they have achievement in a short period of time.”

He was speaking at an economic forum in Colombo with Sri Lanka’s President, Prime Minister and other senior officials in attendance.

He also said that there were opportunities for Sri Lanka in tourism.

“Sri Lanka is a bright spot and I think there is great opportunity in tourism.”

However he said that external global environment will be hostile in the future and that funds would flow out of developing countries.

“Money is no longer coming to developing countries and harsh choices will have to be made instead of waiting for things to get better,” he said.

“The world is now in a deflationary situation and developing countries that benefited from the commodity boom will not be able to do so any longer.”

Interest rates in the United States going to positive territory the trends may get stronger, he added.

 

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Wednesday, January 6, 2016

Sri Lanka, Pakistan consider currency swap agreement

Jan 06, 2015 (LBO) – Sri Lanka and Pakistan will considering entering into a currency swap agreement, the Prime Minister of Pakistan Nawaz Sharif said speaking in Colombo.

The two countries will also look at a joint investment company, he said speaking at the launch of the single country trade exhibition.

Sri Lanka has a 1.5 billion dollar currency swap arrangement with India which supported foreign reserves, and Sri Lanka has requested extending this arrangement with India.

Sharif said investments and services sectors could be included in the free trade agreement between the two countries, with the aim to boost trade to one billion dollars from the current 325 million dollars.

 

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